Nerdy Birds: Analyzing the Falcons' red-zone turnaround

Nerdy Birds: Analyzing the Falcons' red-zone turnaround

Atlanta Falcons
05 Dec 2025, 22:30 GMT+

One of the starkest areas of improvement over the course of the 2025 season has been in the red zone.

byMatt Haley&Taylor Garner

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. Mired in a trying season, Atlanta's players and coaching staff continue to look for ways to improve week in and week out. One of the starkest areas of improvement over the course of the 2025 season has been in the red zone. Over the first eight weeks of the season, the Falcons moved the ball well in the open field but struggled to find the end zone once they got inside the 20-yard line.

Over the first eight weeks of the season, Atlanta scored touchdowns on just 45% of its red-zone drives, finding the end zone nine times on 20 trips to the red area. These red-zone issues were exacerbated by a lack of possession. The Falcons had 74 offensive drives over the first eight weeks, tied for the fourth fewest in the league. The team had fewer opportunities, which heightened the impact of each miss.

Since Week 9, however, the Falcons have flipped that script, posting a league-best 92.9% red-zone touchdown rate and a 100% red-zone scoring rate. Atlanta scored touchdowns on 13 of 14 red-zone drives over the last five games, including 10 straight between Weeks 9 and 12.

The recent success has vaulted the Falcons to a 64.7% red-zone touchdown percentage overall, which ranks eighth in the NFL this season.

Despite playing two fewer games over the stretch, Atlanta has scored four more red-zone touchdowns over the last five weeks compared to the first eight weeks of the season, resulting in a 47.9% increase in red-zone efficiency. The Falcons kicked nine field goals on 20 red-zone drives over the first eight weeks of the season, but in the last five weeks, the offense has converted drives into touchdowns. Atlanta's ability to reduce negative plays has been a key factor in the turnaround.

"When you look at red-zone offense, that is typically the biggest thing, no negative plays and no turnovers," offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said. "We've been able to stay efficient. Even gains of two, gains of three are better than a minus five. ... That's been a real positive throughout the season, especially with how it started."

Since Week 9, Atlanta has just eight negative plays in the red zone, the fourth fewest in the NFL over that span, compared to 22 over the first eight weeks. The Falcons reduced their negative runs from seven in the first eight weeks to just one over the last five. The team has also improved its yards per carry average from 2.4 to 3.2 and its completion percentage from 52.6% to 75% jumping from the bottom of the league's rankings to the top five in each category.

While the offensive improvement has stood out on the stat sheet, the defense has also quietly improved in the red zone.

Over the first eight weeks of the season, Atlanta's defense allowed touchdowns on 68.8% of red-zone drives, which ranked 28th in the league. Since Week 9, that number has fallen to 45%, tied for the seventh-best mark over that span.

The improvements on both sides of the ball represent a promising trend for the offense in a statistic that is often overlooked: red-zone touchdown differential.

Using Microsoft CoPilot to sort through Tru Media's red-zone data set, Atlanta has improved its touchdown differential to an eye-popping 71.7% from Weeks 9-13 compared to Weeks 1-8. Atlanta went from a minus-23.8% differential to a 47.9% mark as the offense scored touchdowns at a significantly higher rate than opponents. This has generally been a good metric for success as at least five playoff teams from each of the last five seasons have ranked in the top 10 in red-zone touchdown differential at the end of the season.

Unfortunately for Atlanta, these improvements have not translated into wins, but they do show a clear indication of progress from both the players and the coaching staff. The ability to identify and solve problems is a sign of good process, even if the results aren't as desired.

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