The running back is the straw that stirs Atlanta's drink.

byMatt Haley&Taylor Garner

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. There aren't many silver linings in a 30-0 loss. If the Atlanta Falcons are going to make a quick turnaround, they'll need to lean on the player who has worked thus far: Bijan Robinson. After three weeks, Robinson ranks second in the NFL and leads the NFC in scrimmage yards (403), including 239 rushing yards and 164 receiving yards. He is the fifth player in franchise history, and the first since Julio Jones in 2015, to total 400 scrimmage yards in the first three games of a season.

Atlanta has certainly fed its hot hand in Robinson, as the third-year running back is tied with Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs for seventh in the NFL with 61 total touches. Robinson is tied for 10th in carries and has the fourth-most receptions among running backs. The Falcons' offense runs through Robinson, and it would be a surprise to see that strategy change against the Washington Commanders in Week 4. This hasn't just been Atlanta spamming the Robinson button, though.

Using successful plays and success rate as barometers, Robinson has been one of the most effective and efficient backs in the league this season with the ball in his hands. TruMedia defines successful plays as gaining 50% of the necessary yardage for a first down on first and second down and/or converting a first down on third or fourth down. Among players with at least 25 touches, Robinson ranks eighth in overall success rate (52.3) and sixth in rushing success rate (48.9). Excluding quarterbacks, Robinson is tied for the fourth most successful plays (34) in the league this season.

Robinson's combination of speed and elusiveness is what makes him such a vital part of the Falcons' offense. According to Next Gen Stats, he has outgained his expected rushing yards on 43.5% of his carries and averages nearly a full yard per carry more than his expected average. These numbers are largely due to the fact he has forced 14 missed tackles, which represents a missed tackle on nearly 30% of his rushes, according to Microsoft CoPilot. Next Gen Stats has credited Robinson with 78 yards after missed tackles and 193 yards after contact. Since entering the league in 2023, he ranks second in missed tackles forced (175) and yards after missed tackles (916), and he's fifth in yards after contact (1,903).

As a receiver, Robinson ranks second among running backs in yards after the catch (169) and yards after the catch over expectation (+65). He has caught 14 of the 18 passes thrown his way and generated 48 yards over expectation, good for second in the NFL. All this to say, Robinson's ability to turn nothing into something, or a small gain into a big one, makes him the straw that stirs the drink for Atlanta a fact every team the Falcons play against is certainly game planning for.

To be successful against the Commanders, Atlanta will not only need to feature Robinson but make sure he can be his dynamic self. Washington has been a sound defense when it comes to limiting opponents' runners. The Commanders are allowing an explosive run rate of just 8.6%, which ranks 12th in the NFL this season. Additionally, former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn's unit ranks seventh in missed tackle rate (16.7%) and fifth in rushing success rate (35.8%).

The Commanders have also been sound against running backs in the passing game, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 8-of-14 passes for 54 yards and a 65.8 passer rating. While Washington has surrendered just 3.9 yards per attempt, it has been vulnerable to yards after the catch, with opposing running backs averaging 7.3 YAC per reception.

As with any game, success will ultimately come down to whichever team can execute the best over the course of 60 minutes, but Robinson gives the Falcons an advantage anytime he is on the field.

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